Southwest Florida Market Update: September 2026, Prices Firm and the Condo Market Turns

September closed the third quarter with the market leaning further toward sellers in single-family and turning decisively in condos. Across the four county segments, 1,850 homes closed, up 5.5 percent from 1,754 a year earlier, while active listings fell 10.7 percent to 8,031. Sellers received more of their asking price in every one of the four segments.

Single-family: Sarasota County had the month

The Sarasota County single-family median rose 7.8 percent to $485,000, the largest year-over-year gain of any county segment in September, on 681 closings, up 5.4 percent. Months of supply held at 3.7 and active listings fell 16.2 percent to 2,629.

Manatee County was quieter. Its median rose 3.2 percent, also to $485,000, but closings fell 3.9 percent to 636 and new listings rose 8.8 percent, so supply barely moved, down 1.7 percent to 2,610. Manatee sellers did receive the highest share of asking price in the region at 95.7 percent.

The split matters more than either number alone. Sarasota County is absorbing inventory faster than it is being replaced; Manatee is roughly keeping pace. That is why one median rose more than twice as fast as the other.

Condos: the turn arrived, and one number needs a caveat

Sarasota County condo sales rose 34.3 percent to 309 closings and the median rose 6.3 percent to $335,000. Months of supply fell from 6.8 to 4.9. Sellers received 93.0 percent of original list price, up 4.7 points, the largest improvement in negotiating position of any segment.

Then there is the figure that will be quoted out of context. Sarasota County condo dollar volume rose 246.5 percent and the average sale price rose 157.9 percent to $1,082,129. Against a median of $335,000, that gap is the signature of a handful of very large closings landing in one month, not of ordinary condos tripling in value. The report itself makes the point, noting that the median is preferred because the average is sensitive to a few high sales.

Manatee County condos were flat on price at $296,500, exactly level with last September, with sales up 3.7 percent and supply down from 6.3 months to 5.0. The gap between its median and average was narrow, which is what a broadly based market looks like.

What slowed

Two things ran the other way. Homes took longer to go under contractMLS status terms describing a property's stage in the sales process. "Under contract" (sometimes shown as active-under-contract) generally means a signed contract exists but the listing may still accept backup offers or show contingency status. "Pending" typically means all contingencies have been satisfied and the sale is proceeding to closing, with the property effectively off the market. Exact usage can vary slightly by MLS and by listing agent. than in August: 51 days in Sarasota County, four more than August, and 53 in Manatee, eight more. Both are still far faster than last September. New pending sales fell in both counties' single-family segments, 2.8 percent in Sarasota County and 3.6 percent in Manatee. That is the one forward-looking measure pointing down; condo pendings rose in both counties.

New listings rose 7.6 percent across the four segments, so sellers are coming to market. Whether October holds this pattern depends on whether buyers keep absorbing them at September's pace.

What it means if you are buying

Single-family supply under four months in both counties means the discounting window that opened in spring has closed. The negotiating room is on homes that have already passed the 51-day median, not on fresh listings.

Condos are where the leverage still is, but it is narrowing fast. Check the building before the unit: reserves, milestone inspection status and assessment history decide your real monthly cost more than the purchase price does.

What it means if you are selling

Every segment improved its share of asking price received. That is the cleanest evidence that realistic pricing is being met rather than tested.

Price against recent comparable closings, not against the average sale price. In Sarasota County condos especially, the average has been pulled far above any ordinary unit by a small number of luxury sales, and a listing priced to that average will sit.