Southwest Florida Q3 2026: Sales Up 8 Percent, Supply Down, and Condos Finally Moving

The third quarter of 2026 did something the previous four quarters did not: it improved on volume, price, speed and negotiating position at the same time, in both counties and in both property types. Across the four county segments 5,699 homes closed, up 8.0 percent from 5,279, while active listings finished the quarter 10.7 percent lower at 8,031.

Single-family: the metro median crossed $490,000

Metro-wide, 4,088 single-family homes closed, up 3.6 percent, at a median of $490,000, up 4.3 percent. Homes went under contractMLS status terms describing a property's stage in the sales process. "Under contract" (sometimes shown as active-under-contract) generally means a signed contract exists but the listing may still accept backup offers or show contingency status. "Pending" typically means all contingencies have been satisfied and the sale is proceeding to closing, with the property effectively off the market. Exact usage can vary slightly by MLS and by listing agent. in a median 50 days against 63 a year ago, and sellers received 95.0 percent of original list price, up 2.1 points. Months of supply fell from 4.5 to 3.8.

The two counties arrived at similar medians by different routes. Sarasota County's rose 3.7 percent to $485,000 with inventory down 16.2 percent; Manatee's rose 3.2 percent to $490,000 with inventory down just 1.7 percent but new listings up 4.7 percent. Sarasota County closed slightly more sales for the quarter, 2,071 against Manatee's 2,017, though Manatee moved them faster, at a median 49 days to contract against 52.

Condos: volume led, price followed slowly

Metro condo closings rose 20.9 percent to 1,611 and the median rose 3.7 percent to $315,000. Sarasota County led on both volume, up 26.8 percent, and price, up 6.4 percent to $324,380. Manatee County rose 13.9 percent on volume and 2.3 percent on price to $307,000.

Supply is the real story. Metro condo months of supply fell from 6.5 to 4.9 in a year, and active listings fell 12.9 percent. The overhang that defined the 2025 condo market is being absorbed.

Two cautions. Time to contract barely moved in Sarasota County, 86 days against 87, so condos still sell far more slowly than houses. And the quarter's condo dollar volume, up 81.8 percent metro-wide, is concentrated: the metro average sale price of $557,334 sits far above the $315,000 median because of a small number of very large closings, most of them in Sarasota County.

Reading Q3 against Q2

Closings fell from Q2 in every segment, which is what the third quarter normally does in a market where much of the demand is seasonal. Metro single-family sales fell 15.7 percent from Q2 and condo sales fell 20.8 percent.

The conditions underneath improved anyway. The metro single-family median rose 2.1 percent over Q2, months of supply fell from 4.1 to 3.8, and the share of asking price received rose slightly. Condos gave back 2.8 percent on the median but improved more than a month on supply.

What to do with this

If you are buying a house, plan for a market with under four months of supply, and spend your negotiating effort on listings that have passed the 50-day median rather than on new ones.

If you are buying a condo, the window of maximum leverage has narrowed but has not closed, and the building's finances matter more than the asking price. If you are selling either, the quarter's clearest signal is that correctly priced homes are being met quickly, and the share of asking price kept is higher than a year ago in all four county segments.